By Carlos H. Conde
International Herald Tribune
Published: April 29, 2007

MANILA: When Manny Pacquiao, a Filipino world super featherweight boxing champion, announced his decision to run for Congress in next month’s midterm elections, more than a few eyebrows were raised. Why would a man like him – someone who did not finish high school, who does not have any political experience and who, at 28, is at the peak of a multimillion-dollar career – do that?

Some analysts here say that question can be answered by another question: Who is Pacquiao up against?

He is facing Darlene Antonino Custodio, a petite U.S.-born politician who was one of the members of Congress that moved to impeach President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo last year.

Custodio says the Arroyo administration is determined to make sure that she does not keep her seat in the May 14 vote as punishment for her involvement in the impeachment bid.

“I believe that people within the president’s party prodded Manny to run for Congress,” Custodio said.

Gabriel Claudio, Arroyo’s chief political adviser, said, “I don’t know of anybody in the cabinet or in the party who influenced or pressured Manny Pacquiao into running.”

Pacquiao has repeatedly denied that he was being used by Arroyo’s party. “The reason why I’m running for office, I want to help a lot of the poor people,” he told The New York Times this month.

But the flurry of speculation here about just why Pacquiao and some others are running points to a concern that many analysts here share: They say they are worried that this election is, above all, about settling political scores and ensuring that the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as more regional offices – from provincial governors down to members of town councils – are dominated by members of the parties in Arroyo’s governing coalition and their political allies.

“This election will determine not so much the fate of the nation but the fate of President Arroyo,” said Ramon Casiple, the executive director of the Institute for Political and Economic Reforms, a nonprofit Manila research institute.

Ensuring the president’s legitimacy is a far more central issue in this election than in any other election in the past, he said.

Administration officials have criticized the opposition for, in the words of Ricardo Saludo, a key adviser to the president, “not having gone past 2005,” the year the country was thrown into political chaos because of the first attempt to impeach Arroyo.

Although Arroyo survived two impeachment bids, including one last year, her opponents have promised to revive the calls for her impeachment, based on allegations that she rigged the 2004 election.

By packing Congress and the Senate with her own people, and by ensuring that she has the loyalty of local officials, Arroyo could head off new calls to revive impeachment proceedings against her, said Bobby Tuazon, an analyst at the Center for People Empowerment and Governance, a nonprofit group that advocates grassroots participation in government.

Economic and social issues have been shoved aside, the analysts say. The middle class “has decided to boycott this election,” said Manuel Quezon 3rd, a historian and political analyst.

Although Arroyo’s party has always dominated Congress – one reason previous impeachment attempts foundered – her popularity has slipped in recent months, according to surveys by two Manila polling institutes, Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia. The surveys have shown that opposition candidates, particularly for the Senate, will dominate, although candidates allied with the governing coalition have been winning more support in recent weeks.

Eduardo Ermita, the executive secretary to Arroyo, noted that support for the governing coalition’s candidates was strong throughout the country. He said that 78 of the country’s 81 governors belong to the governing coalition and added that 199 of the 219 congressional candidates were allied with Arroyo, as well as 95 percent of all city mayors and 90 percent of all town mayors.

“We are standing on the record of the administration, and we are standing on the record of performance,” Ermita said last week.

But members of the opposition say that to ensure continued local support, the administration is striking deals with former political opponents and fielding popular movie stars and personalities, like Pacquiao.

Alan Peter Cayetano, an opposition member of Congress, found himself running against a candidate said to be affiliated with the governing coalition who has a name very similar to his, and the same nickname. The similar names, he says, could confuse voters and could spoil his chance in the senatorial race, he said. The candidate, Joselito Peter Cayetano, who registered under his nickname, Peter, has since been disqualified by the elections commission, although he is appealing.

Lito Lapid, a star of popular action movies and a former senator, is running for mayor of Makati City, the country’s financial district, against the incumbent, Jejomar Binay, a leader of the political opposition.

But the coming elections, said Saludo, the adviser to the president, are “an effort for the country to move forward, to leave behind 2005 and create more conditions for economic growth.”

Saludo cited surveys that pointed to Filipinos’ desire to move ahead and to allow Arroyo to focus on the real problems of the country.

“Investments are growing, fiscal reforms are in place,” he said. “What we hope will happen is a credible election that will affirm the mandate of the administration and attract more investors.”

Some analysts remain convinced that there is a different motive.

“I don’t think anyone can deny that avoiding an impeachment effort is an explicitly stated administration goal,” Quezon said.

Besides, he added, Arroyo needs to show that she can deliver the votes because “an administration that has its slate defeated in a midterm election becomes a lame duck.”